1. Member Frequent Poster
Join Date
Apr 2006
Posts
98

Probability of survival

Sorry for bothering you with math, but I had nothing better to do.

Unsurprisingly, most people die during their first hunt. There seems to be no significant better chance of surviving your third hunt than your second.

The Tae mission has not been considered a proper hunt (put it under "risk of exposure"):

Survived first hunt

Sakata
Kaze
Inaba
Old Man
Hoi Hoi
Reika
Takeshi
Sakurai
Katou
Nishi
Kurono
Tetsuo
Hojo
Kishimoto
Dog
Gang raper 4
Rape victim
Izumi

Killed first hunt

Onion 5
Tanaka 5
Buddha 9
Kappe 16
Ring 1
Oni 4

Total survived 22
Total killed 40
Total 62

Chance of surviving first hunt: 22 / 62 = 0.3548

Chance of dying on first hunt: 1 - 0.3548 = 0.6452

Died between first & second hunt

Tetsuo
Gang raper 2

Did not die between first & second hunt

Sakata
Kaze
Inaba
Old Man
Hoi Hoi
Reika
Sakurai
Katou
Nishi
Kurono
Hojo
Kishimoto
Dog
Rape victim
Gang raper 2
Izumi

Died: 3
Survived: 18
Total: 21

Chance of death between first and second hunt: 3 / 21 = 0.1429

Chance of not surviving to start your second hunt: 0.3548 * 0.1429 = 0.0507
Chance of surviving to start your second hunt: 0.3548 - 0.0507 = 0.3041

Survived second hunt

Sakata
Kaze
Inaba
Old Man
Hoi Hoi
Reika
Sakurai
Katou
Nishi
Kurono
Kishimoto
Dog
Izumi

Killed second hunt

Hojo
Rape victim
Gang raper 2

Total survived 13
Total killed 5
Total 18

Chance of surviving second hunt: 13 / 18 = 0.7222

Chance of surviving two hunts: 0.3041 * 0.7222 = 0.2196

Chance of dying on second hunt: 0.3041 - 0.2196 = 0.0845

Survived third hunt

Sakata
Kaze
Inaba
Old Man
Hoi Hoi
Reika
Kurono
Dog
Izumi

Killed third hunt

Sakurai
Katou
Kishimoto

Total survived 9
Total killed 3
Total 12

Chance of surviving third hunt: 9 / 12 = 0.75

Chance of surviving three hunts: 0.2196 * 0.75 = 0.1647

Chance of dying on third hunt: 0.2196 - 0.1647 = 0.0549

Killed first hunt: 0.6452
Died between 1st & 2nd: 0.0507
Killed second hunt: 0.0845
Killed third hunt: 0.0549
Survived 3 hunts: 0.1647

2. Senior Member Community Builder
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Jun 2005
Location
Kansas City
Posts
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That's quite interesting. Thanks for sharing that with us.

Hmm...I suppose it can't be used to predict future statistics, but it's interesting nonetheless.

3. Senior Member Well Known
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Nov 2005
Location
DFMX
Posts
285
yeah, it would be very useful if gantz was real, but everything that happens there is a product of oku's arbitrary imagination (sounds weird, uh?? arbitrary imagination??)

anyways, it's some math I would have never done xD thanks for showing us something like that

4. Member Frequent Poster
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Oct 2005
Location
Melbourne
Posts
43
Damn....who would've thought that statistics would actually be useful?

5. Junior Member Newbie
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Jul 2006
Posts
3
Not meaning to be harsh, but if you really want to post stats up and crap. Get your facts straight and stop confusing others. Lay the shit out properly or not do it out at all. There's so much discrepancies in that data you might as well throw it out of the window and start again.

6. Senior Member Regular
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Jun 2006
Location
indonesia
Posts
166
wow you might be successfull as great accountant.

althought my head is spinning to read your calculation but i can conclude that youre such a damn gantzter maniac.

7. Senior Member Well Known
Join Date
Oct 2005
Location
Hell
Posts
285
Originally Posted by KaChing
Not meaning to be harsh, but if you really want to post stats up and crap. Get your facts straight and stop confusing others. Lay the shit out properly or not do it out at all. There's so much discrepancies in that data you might as well throw it out of the window and start again.
YOUR post was useless. You donīt help with posting this unless you explain your opinion. Donīt only say it is bad, tell us which discrepancies you see.

8. Junior Member Newbie
Join Date
Jul 2006
Posts
3
Originally Posted by Lou Zi Faah
YOUR post was useless. You donīt help with posting this unless you explain your opinion. Donīt only say it is bad, tell us which discrepancies you see.
If you're willing to pay me for over dozens of pages of calculations of mathematical statistics and correlations, followed by thorough written explanation for each reasoning compiled into a full report on Gantz Probability of Survival. I wouldn't mind.

9. Senior Member Well Known
Join Date
Oct 2005
Location
Hell
Posts
285
Originally Posted by KaChing
If you're willing to pay me for over dozens of pages of calculations of mathematical statistics and correlations, followed by thorough written explanation for each reasoning compiled into a full report on Gantz Probability of Survival. I wouldn't mind.
Itīs ok, you wonīt explain, so your post is useless. Itīs just a statement, a foolish kid said without explaining why. Not a thing to care of. Pst you did agood job.

10. Junior Member Newbie
Join Date
Jul 2006
Posts
3
Originally Posted by Lou Zi Faah
It&#180;s ok, you won&#180;t explain, so your post is useless. It&#180;s just a statement, a foolish kid said without explaining why. Not a thing to care of. Pst you did agood job.

I can tell you a few reasonings that influence and change the probability, the level of the threats, the number of previous survivors of the previous hunt, the characteristics of those survivors Kei wants to save them and some obviously care about themselves, the number of obstacles/hazards etc. These all influence the probability. If everyone can work out the probability of things and take into account of every factor with such simple calculations we won't need staticians, mathematicians and analysts these days.

Your post isn't exactly very intellectual or provide any help either. At least I'm making a statement that is stating his probability calculations are invalid (far to basic). Why don't you grow a brain for once when these things are self-explanatory without me having to explain it to someone like you? Oh a kid explained it to you, it says much of your IQ doesn't it?
Last edited by KaChing; 08-06-2006 at 03:31 PM.

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