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  1. #1
    Pst
    Pst is offline Member Frequent Poster
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    Apr 2006
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    98

    Default Probability of survival

    Sorry for bothering you with math, but I had nothing better to do.

    Unsurprisingly, most people die during their first hunt. There seems to be no significant better chance of surviving your third hunt than your second.

    The Tae mission has not been considered a proper hunt (put it under "risk of exposure"):


    Survived first hunt

    Sakata
    Kaze
    Inaba
    Old Man
    Hoi Hoi
    Reika
    Takeshi
    Sakurai
    Katou
    Nishi
    Kurono
    Tetsuo
    Hojo
    Sadako
    Kishimoto
    Dog
    Gang raper 4
    Rape victim
    Izumi

    Killed first hunt

    Onion 5
    Tanaka 5
    Buddha 9
    Kappe 16
    Ring 1
    Oni 4

    Total survived 22
    Total killed 40
    Total 62

    Chance of surviving first hunt: 22 / 62 = 0.3548

    Chance of dying on first hunt: 1 - 0.3548 = 0.6452


    Died between first & second hunt

    Tetsuo
    Gang raper 2

    Did not die between first & second hunt

    Sakata
    Kaze
    Inaba
    Old Man
    Hoi Hoi
    Reika
    Sakurai
    Katou
    Nishi
    Kurono
    Hojo
    Sadako
    Kishimoto
    Dog
    Rape victim
    Gang raper 2
    Izumi

    Died: 3
    Survived: 18
    Total: 21

    Chance of death between first and second hunt: 3 / 21 = 0.1429

    Chance of not surviving to start your second hunt: 0.3548 * 0.1429 = 0.0507
    Chance of surviving to start your second hunt: 0.3548 - 0.0507 = 0.3041


    Survived second hunt

    Sakata
    Kaze
    Inaba
    Old Man
    Hoi Hoi
    Reika
    Sakurai
    Katou
    Nishi
    Kurono
    Kishimoto
    Dog
    Izumi

    Killed second hunt

    Hojo
    Sadako
    Rape victim
    Gang raper 2

    Total survived 13
    Total killed 5
    Total 18

    Chance of surviving second hunt: 13 / 18 = 0.7222

    Chance of surviving two hunts: 0.3041 * 0.7222 = 0.2196

    Chance of dying on second hunt: 0.3041 - 0.2196 = 0.0845

    Survived third hunt

    Sakata
    Kaze
    Inaba
    Old Man
    Hoi Hoi
    Reika
    Kurono
    Dog
    Izumi

    Killed third hunt

    Sakurai
    Katou
    Kishimoto

    Total survived 9
    Total killed 3
    Total 12

    Chance of surviving third hunt: 9 / 12 = 0.75

    Chance of surviving three hunts: 0.2196 * 0.75 = 0.1647

    Chance of dying on third hunt: 0.2196 - 0.1647 = 0.0549



    Killed first hunt: 0.6452
    Died between 1st & 2nd: 0.0507
    Killed second hunt: 0.0845
    Killed third hunt: 0.0549
    Survived 3 hunts: 0.1647

  2. #2
    coolerimmortal is offline Senior Member Community Builder
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    Default

    That's quite interesting. Thanks for sharing that with us.

    Hmm...I suppose it can't be used to predict future statistics, but it's interesting nonetheless.

  3. #3
    Dekkai is offline Senior Member Well Known
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    Nov 2005
    Location
    DFMX
    Posts
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    Default

    yeah, it would be very useful if gantz was real, but everything that happens there is a product of oku's arbitrary imagination (sounds weird, uh?? arbitrary imagination??)

    anyways, it's some math I would have never done xD thanks for showing us something like that

  4. #4
    Opmrph is offline Member Frequent Poster
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    Default

    Damn....who would've thought that statistics would actually be useful?

  5. #5
    KaChing is offline Junior Member Newbie
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    Default

    Not meaning to be harsh, but if you really want to post stats up and crap. Get your facts straight and stop confusing others. Lay the shit out properly or not do it out at all. There's so much discrepancies in that data you might as well throw it out of the window and start again.

  6. #6
    bado_66 is offline Senior Member Regular
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    Jun 2006
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    indonesia
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    Default

    wow you might be successfull as great accountant.

    althought my head is spinning to read your calculation but i can conclude that youre such a damn gantzter maniac.

    Dare Alla Luce, to give to the light

  7. #7
    Lou Zi Faah is offline Senior Member Well Known
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    Hell
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KaChing
    Not meaning to be harsh, but if you really want to post stats up and crap. Get your facts straight and stop confusing others. Lay the shit out properly or not do it out at all. There's so much discrepancies in that data you might as well throw it out of the window and start again.
    YOUR post was useless. You donīt help with posting this unless you explain your opinion. Donīt only say it is bad, tell us which discrepancies you see.

  8. #8
    KaChing is offline Junior Member Newbie
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Lou Zi Faah
    YOUR post was useless. You donīt help with posting this unless you explain your opinion. Donīt only say it is bad, tell us which discrepancies you see.
    If you're willing to pay me for over dozens of pages of calculations of mathematical statistics and correlations, followed by thorough written explanation for each reasoning compiled into a full report on Gantz Probability of Survival. I wouldn't mind.

  9. #9
    Lou Zi Faah is offline Senior Member Well Known
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KaChing
    If you're willing to pay me for over dozens of pages of calculations of mathematical statistics and correlations, followed by thorough written explanation for each reasoning compiled into a full report on Gantz Probability of Survival. I wouldn't mind.
    Itīs ok, you wonīt explain, so your post is useless. Itīs just a statement, a foolish kid said without explaining why. Not a thing to care of. Pst you did agood job.

  10. #10
    KaChing is offline Junior Member Newbie
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Lou Zi Faah
    It´s ok, you won´t explain, so your post is useless. It´s just a statement, a foolish kid said without explaining why. Not a thing to care of. Pst you did agood job.

    I can tell you a few reasonings that influence and change the probability, the level of the threats, the number of previous survivors of the previous hunt, the characteristics of those survivors Kei wants to save them and some obviously care about themselves, the number of obstacles/hazards etc. These all influence the probability. If everyone can work out the probability of things and take into account of every factor with such simple calculations we won't need staticians, mathematicians and analysts these days.

    Your post isn't exactly very intellectual or provide any help either. At least I'm making a statement that is stating his probability calculations are invalid (far to basic). Why don't you grow a brain for once when these things are self-explanatory without me having to explain it to someone like you? Oh a kid explained it to you, it says much of your IQ doesn't it?
    Last edited by KaChing; 08-06-2006 at 03:31 PM.

 

 
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