TWG Day 2 - Little progress ...

[bipolargraph]

I said you were trying to discredit me. Also, you're style typing is kinda similar to last game's typing (or posts), but I could be wrong, all I know is that the seer told me that adonai is a mafia. I'm also guessing that person (the seer) is not a mafia since I know him, and he's not that reckless. Therefore adonai is a mafia. If we run around doubting what we do we're not getting anywhere.

edit: ^ basically what jakko said. Also worth mentioning that once I posted at the internet cafe I couldn't go back and fix it (and I was in a hurry too.).

[Digital_Eon]

Night 2 - The seer pinged adonai, and contacted bipolar. However, comp never mentioned when the night phase began. bipolar immediately posts, not realizing the day is over. The timing is tricky, but plausible.

As bipolar himself mentioned, two and a half hours passed from the time Comp started the night phase and bipolar posted. Besides, my point is that bipolar would have to know it's the night phase - the seer couldn't have contacted him earlier because the seer wouldn't have been able to ping anyone earlier.

Edit:

Also, you're style typing is kinda similar to last game's typing (or posts)

Oh gee, what evidence. *eyeroll*

Also, bipolar, you do realize you've given us evidence as to the seer's identity, right? Multiple criteria that eliminate a bunch of people?

[_Vincent_]

I'm going with bipolar with this one.

@Irecinius: if you were pinged you should have received a PM about a reversing ping. no one else is claiming to have been pinged for the last 2 days so I think bipolar is right.

adonai, for not defending himself.

[adonai]

He hasn't even been active nor said anything in defence after Bipolar said the seer pinged him. =/ I still say he's Mafia.

adonai, for not defending himself.

It's only been three hours since the day started...and I was out having dinner with my family because it's my birthday...

I don't have very regular internet access right now, and apparently we aren't supposed to talk during the night. I did defend myself yesterday anyways, so I'm not sure where you're getting that from.

If this were the case, shouldn't have another person come and declare that he is the pinged one and that bob is a liar and all?
this wouldn't mean that the second person was right or anything but at leat it would bring some doubt.

This depends on the seer being active, and the seer not being dead, we can't be sure of either at this point.

I'm not going to vote for bipolar by the way, pretty sure that it's scenario 2 from my side, scenario 3 doesn't make that much sense unless he really just doesn't mind killing me (this isn't without precedence though).

Voting for him would be pointless without getting a majority (or plurality if we count placeholder), and unless you guys all change your mind or decide to go for a tie (and let the mafia break it), I don't see much chance of surviving the day anyways.

I don't mind dying since there's not much I can do as a regular townie, so do what you will. A concerted effort to kill me by the mafia is still better than dying by a misunderstanding like last game.

[irecinius]

Jakko: Well, you've been going on how my typing was such and such, if it was really me who was posting.. what I've been doing..
And mostly just deviating the subject of my posts.

Not to mention you that is pay so much attention to posting and writing styles. Couldn't possibly missed this post:

By Bipolargraph "..and he wanted me to ping him to make sure..."

Now bipolar is the seer, or just a mafia member..

Maybe even worse scenario is:

Seer pinged Bipolar on first day> Mafia... seer can't do shit otherwise he will risk revealing himself.
Seer pinged someone now, and again he hit again a mafia... now doesn't know what to do, could've be even you.

Now just because I suspect you is a mafia doesn't mean I'm stupid, is it?..


@Comp: if the seer pings, the person pinged knows it was pinged immediately? or only if the seer wishes to?

Or the person know he was pinged is notified anyway, but if the name of the seer is revealed or not depends on the seer?

If that is true then bipolar could be lying to get people on his side, while the seer can't do nothing, yet because he knows no townie.

I find odd that after I stand out on the first day I dont' get pinged.. that is odd.
Even Henchy confirmed that "Irec was our only lead".

Can you explain me the logic? how come the seer didn't ping the one making more fuzz about it? instead go by some random seering?

Instead of relying too much on the seer and guardian, why not take matters in your own hand and find the mafias by them.

I didn't look at latest games, but I'm pretty sure that this is the same thing that repeats over and over again.. townies dragging and dragging until 1/2 of the population is killed

[_Vincent_]

@Irecinius: the summoner/medium/whatver should have contacted you already. I know your not allowed to sent PMs but you could receive them. He/She should be a confirmed townie then we can use that person as a rallying point for the townies. Then we can narrow down a larger number of townies because all of the roled townies will be identified by the seers already and they can just pinged the unidentified players.

@adonai: I must have missed that. I had 2 days off. I just logged in and skimmed everything before placing my votes. well there is 3 votes on you already so changing my vote wouldn't make a difference. Hopefully you are lying. If your a Townie then the townies will be in a lot of trouble I expect some roled townies might have contacted bipolar already.

[irecinius]

Since its on the beginning instead of using one person, everyone should post here who they think should be lynched. any excuse works..
Because he saw on his alphabits a angel told him! doesn't matter..

What is the point of this? we have 36hours to discuss who and why we should kill! The more we make people active talking here the best is it.
Also its not to lynch 10-20 people a day, but make everyone get to a consensus on who we should Lynch, why? its easy. I gives time for the seer to work out how is mafia who isn't, if he/she didn't found out already.

And will be very easy to spot someone trying to mislead the bunch, and that is a dead giveaway who is a mafia!

Sure the seer might give him/herself up if not careful, but that is when the guardian job comes into play! He doesn't need to reveal him/herself, all he needs its to make sure to guard the seer if he does give himself up..

And the seer should do that, as soon as possible, just find a mafia, and tell the world, guardian will protect him, we lynch that person.. if turns out to be mafia, hey! good give us another! if turns again to be mafia yay we won..
Of course the mafia might try be pretend to be the seer, but that can be easily figured out.. as soon the "seer' can't locate the next two or last mafia, just lynch the "seer".

Then if turns out to be mafia, just look into whoever he said was "innocent"
if turns out to be the true seer, just look into whoever he didn't investigate!

I think since we are at tremendous disadvantage, knowing the identity of who died while the coroner is still alive would be best for us here. Just so we have no doubts, since its coming from you Comp.
You could just beside the obituary put the role that person had if any!

Now why no lynching is bad:
What are we - an apathetic mob?
When we do not lynching, to me seems we trying to protect someone.

Mafia wins if mafia = townies: 3 mafia 3 townies mafia wins.

we have 3 mafias, 11 innocent.
If we don't lynch anyone by day 9 we will lose the game.

Day 5 and day 8 are the dangerous ones, as they will have a hit-man available!

If we lynch at random we have a 27% chance of hitting a mafia member or 11% chance of hitting the hit-man!
Each time we hit a mafia we push our lose day by +2days each time we hit one of us, it pushes -1day. (Hit-man really screw up my calculations I can't come up with a good variable, so I simply didn't account I hope you get him before day 5 or 8^^)

Of course INTELLIGENT lynching is better then random.

[bipolargraph]

"..and he wanted me to ping him to make sure..."

I was talking about urameshi, before he died he pmd me, and said he wanted to discuss strategies with me, and that he didn't mind being pinged if no one else is on the list. (He said that he was roleless.)
Also, I don't think a mafia would be stupid enough to pretend to be the seer, and tell me that adonai is a mafia. Right now IF that person is a mafia, then the seer would of contacted me already when I claimed someone talked to me claiming to be the seer. (or he would of pinged me) We also shouldn't recklessly lynch one another irec, however we shouldn't hesitate to lynch anyone since that's the problem with most people (if we win by one vote, then the mafia can change that).

@Coroner: The medium contacted me, and said that he wanted to confirm targets so that he wouldn't bring back dead people, so if you'd be so kind to contact me... (now or tomorrow if you don't feel safe...)

[irecinius]

If the seer haven't pinged you he has no way to know if you aren't also a mafia, so claiming to have been contacted by a seer isn't any better then telling you are innocent..

And I see trying to not lynch someone is just strange, are people trying to protect someone?

Also winning by "ONE" vote? how so?

we have 14 people, just make sure 7 people vote for the same!
Easy enough.. thats 50%! not even if all 3 mafiosos publicaly vote for the seer, and use their kill power to also change votes.. thats 4... townies still have 3 votes ahead.

Counting with 50% I'm sure its reasonable number of townies.
So no, its not a problem to worry about mafia trying to change one vote, or mass vote a declared seer off..
Since once the seer publicaly say "I"M THE SEER" they can't touch him! (as long the guardian do his/her job!)
And is very much what the seer have to do.

There is simply no need to act like this, we just need the seer to come foward!

Of course unless the guardian is dead! (that is highly unprobably, because he should atleast be protecting himself up to now)
And if that is the case, the coroner should speak up and say so that the guardian is dead, then sure go ahead with secrecy and start throwing "seers representants" townies to the mafia...

But then again will be easy to figure out who isn't the one stickin his neck out, and the mafia will go after them.. and you guys WILL lose the seer..


You guys are thinking way too much for a simple thing:

Seer come forward: Guardian protect seer from now on..
Medium PM seer, Coroner pm seer! thats it.
Guardian is the fail-safe not needing to come forward if the "seer" happens to be a fake.

Of course we will still have to lynch someone now and them! Because like I said, we lose by Day 9, if nothing is done. But if you do what I said you would push the odds to 35% of hitting a mafia member, on a random lynch!
Its very good odds if you ask me.. and you guys have to HOPE within thoses 35% you have 33% of hitting the hitman, and you have to do so before day5 so you don't get double executed (again)!
Either way its a race before day 5 to get a mafioso and hoping you got the hitman! so, you got 2 days..
I'm proposing two random lynches today, and tomorrow, thats net over 50% of chance on sucessfuly killing a mafioso!

Or you wanna bet on the seer picking one mafia member out of the bunch in 1 day. since today he will have to use on you or something because I don't belive he did so.
That even if what you saying is true, that adonai is a mafia..

[bipolargraph]

If the seer haven't pinged you he has no way to know if you aren't also a mafia, so claiming to have been contacted by a seer isn't that good of a choice.

I said he has pinged me lol. What I'm afraid of is adonai, and someone else (who's a mafia) would vote me out, then they get to change the vote at the end of the day. Of course then they'd be exposing themselves, but it is possible.
Right now, I want one more vote on adonai by anyone. It's easy to say that we unite the townies, but still there are some who will have doubts, and the mafia will do it's best to instill them.
The only problem with the seer declaring himself is that he's dead meat if the guardian gets killed/acts lamely. (The guard can't protect himself.)
Now if I would only get to know the guard, then I'd make him cover the seer. So far I've been contacted by the seer and the medium, if the guard/coroner contact me then it would make our job easier.
@guard: Please cover me today too. From their kills I'm guessing the mafia is going for suspected seers, they might go for me, but they might go for two other kills...