TWMG 2: Day Three- Unexpected

[Sirusboon]

Adonai died, no story tonight sorry tomorrow will be a double.

Dead:
1. mystic_guard_sinoel
12. Evail691
8. adonai

Alive:
2. bipolargraph
3. Jakko
4. Urameshi-sama
5. kaom
6. Compjotr
7. Kiamnenieh
9. Rypkord
10. Digital_Eon
11. flash

Day ends at 3PM tomorrow, in 18 hours.

[kaom]

Well, that means less for us to ponder on, all right. :/

But it also gives me a chance to get the heck in here with my reply to the other thread! Stupid "no posting at night" rule...

The second that they no longer see that someone is protected, they know they killed the guardian and can attack anyone. At the same time, if they don't show it, the guardian is free to not protect me, and protect anyone they feel might be attacked.

Really, I can't see any faults against this, and all what you said does is make you look like a wolf.

You can't see any faults against this?

The wolves are going to attack one person per night, every night, whether the guardian is alive or not. They don't suddenly gain some sort of "mystical killing powers" because the guardian dies. I think it's good that they know they haven't killed them yet, it means they have to be more cautious and take that into consideration (and that some of us might live a little longer). Why can't the guardian simply refrain from guarding someone as is? No one was guarded on the first night. The guardian is not at all prevented from masking their presence, the wolves don't "know" anything if someone isn't guarded one night, and they have no way of knowing beforehand who the guardian will or will not guard. On the other hand:

I didn't want to say this point cause it could help the wolfs, but they could attack all the people who aren't protected since the guardian can't protect himself.

bipolar's point makes a whole heck of a lot more sense to me than yours. That is not good, in the long run. Makes it hard for the guardian to hide, unless they choose not to guard anyone, which we don't want...

However, I fail to see how asking you to explain what you meant makes me suspicious, and I also don't see how your reasoning makes any sense at all, Jakko.

Edit - What do you mean by this part? "...if they don't show it, the guardian is free to not protect me, and protect anyone they feel might be attacked."

Are you saying you think the guardian has to protect you every round for some reason...? Sure, you've been pinged, but you don't even know who the seer is, and with no one else coming forward (yet, let's hope for someone this round), it doesn't matter because no one is backing you up and saying "yeah, he's a townie." A ping, on its own, isn't worth much.

[Urameshi-sama]

At this point I would look most suspicious because adonai suspected me before he died, but that circumstance is too convenient if you think about it. I haven't been pinged yet either, it seems.

[Rypkord]

Nobody was pinged the second night, yet Jakko was pinged in the time before the first day. I still think Sinoel was the seer which would explain why nobody else has been pinged. Now whether the Guardian is dead or not i think doesn't matter much, but if i was a betting man i would say yes.

I just see waiting another day for proof of someones innocence or guilt that will not come is a waste of time and we are sitting around waiting to get picked off.

As far as who i suspect Compjotr and bipolargraph are the ones who i am most concerned about.

[kaom]

All right...I'm going to put something forward here. I would rather wait until more people have posted and I'm more sure, but I don't have the luxury of time in this game due to the way my schedule is. I will make sure to log on before I leave for work tomorrow morning to vote/retract this/whatever I might need to do. Probably defend myself from Jakko, actually. But, here goes:

I believe that Jakko is the cultist.

Points:

• Jakko says he was pinged on night one.
• No one else has come forward to either confirm or refute this - this means the seer is likely dead (see Sirus's "they lost all hope" comment, too).
• The only deaths have been through wolf kills. This means that if the seer is dead they either got lucky, or they knew who they were.
• The seer would not reveal their identity to a wolf, if Jakko were pinged as one.
• The cultist, when pinged, is revealed as a townie.

The only person, as far as we know, who was in a position to know who the seer was and pass that information along to the wolves is Jakko. The only person who would do it is the cultist. In my opinion, accusing me when all I did was ask a question is suspicious. Not that everyone else isn't accusing people (I think every single one of us is on someone's list now), but at least most of them are putting in some effort to make it look credulous.

The problems with this? I don't know why Jakko would tell us he'd been pinged if this was how it happened. He's smarter than that. Unless there was some kind of misunderstanding and the wolves killed the seer a round early, or he thought his status of being pinged would offer enough protection, I don't see why he would even let us know. Nonetheless, I think it's worth considering, since this is all I have right now and we need to start working on some leads.

However, this all falls apart if someone else was pinged last night. (Unless I am right, and a wolf claims to have been to cover for Jakko. But we won't be able to tell, so I guess it's a matter of how much of a risk we'd like to take...we have to play the numbers game carefully, and lynch when it's appropriate, but before it's too late.)

This also assumes that Evail was the seer and not sinoel. Of course, that could also be a problem, since we didn't actually see any behaviour from sinoel that could indicate anything about him having a role or not.

So...there are some potential flaws here, but I want to see what people think. If there are gaping holes that I'm not seeing, please, point them out. Sorry I can't wait until later to post this, I wanted to hear what Jakko had to say in response to my last post, at least. :/

Edit - Actually, I don't think Kiam is on anyone's "suspicious" list, but he did have his intelligence insulted, so close enough. I guess?

[bipolargraph]

The best course of action is to lynch the people on adonai's list (urumeshi-sama/flash even though they may be too smart to kill adonai for that, but who knows), but of course he might of been killed because he was a threat to the wargs.
We can't afford to not lynch now. There are nine people left, 3 of them bad, 6 good. The wolves will win in 4 turns (day 7), provided we lynch the wrong people they'll win in much less than a 4 days. If we get lucky and get one wolf we'll last longer (there would have to be only 2 people left for them to win). You guys know what I mean.
So we have 4 days to kill one wolf, the days decrease with every kill. Actually we will only last 2 days if we lynch the wrong person for every day.
I told you guys to start lynching from day 1 but none of you believed me (**shakes head**). Now we must lynch someone today, and someone tomorrow and hope that one of them is a wolf. If no one has the guts to start lynching I will go first, then everyone will follow.
If no one wants to start lynching I'll go with the first lynch. (I think this whole lynching thing proves that I'm not a wolf/cultist) Now who should we pick first?
Should we go for Urameshi-sama?

[Rypkord]

^ I think there is reason to believe you are a wolve or warg if you want to lynch that much without evidence. I agree that lynching right now would most likely be our only way of victory, however day 1 was a little hasty even if it would've been right. If you were a werewolf or warg you could easily lead us down the wrong path and in 2 days of wrong lynches ya'll would win.

I will vote today as i feel it is necessary but i will hold off for a little bit to hear what others have to say

Jakko

v Kiamnenieh and Kaom make excellent points. I very well could be tricked but i will go ahead and vote for Jakko as well

[Kiamnenieh]

there is something on my mind:
If MGS was the seer that would mean jakko is a wolf...
let me explain why:

Sinoel sat alone in his home preparing to use his abilities, which he had not used in many years.

this is why we think mgs was the seer

His nose began to bleed as he was struck by a vision of new wargs.

AND this is why jakko is a wolf...
If mgs was the seer then his first vison was of course the first person who got pinged. jakko is the ONLY person who got ping as far as we know...
he even admits that he was pinged.
on day one jakko said he was pinged, everyone belived him because he "doesn't lie" but of course he could say that he was pinged, because the seer is already dead, and no one will get to know the result of that ping.
I believe that jakko was pinged too, but who said that the pingresult proofed his innocence?
I am startig to believe that the story sirus posted was the truth and MGS was the seer, but if one part of the story is true then the other part of the story has to be true as well...
and sirus said: "His nose began to bleed as he was struck by a vision of new wargs" this "VISION" was his first and only ping, and jakko was pinged (he doesn't even deny that) so the "new warg" has to be jakko...

so I'll go ahead and vote for Jakko

edit:
@ jakko please spare us the funkiller of swearing that you are innocent. ths would just be to lame.

[bipolargraph]

No please go for urameshi first since he checked his inbox, and went offline right after (maybe because of the survivor game). I can't let something like checking an inbox slip bye, (unless he would want to contact me tell me his role if he has one etc etc etc.).

^ to the above note please leave jakko after u-sama since mgs was killed before jakko knew he was pinged

[Kiamnenieh]

well there can be a lot of reasons for checking the inbox...
i think the story that is made by sirus is a much better proof of guilt..
the ping and the kill were in the same night, but like the story said "his nose began to bleed as he had a vision..." the "vision" that means the ping was before mgs died, so of course jakko got his PM that he was pinged...
oh and if mgs was the seer (@ bipolar: thats what you said as well) and jakko really got pinged that had to be way it was, because that all happened in the first night...

lets go for urameshi tomorrow...